SPLASH DECANT 04/12/19

Exit Stage Left: The Crisis of the Vanishing Wine Director

I am going to dive in on the crisis of the vanishing Wine Director below; a phenomenon that has shaped the last decade in NYC and has been challenging to keep track of…

Dude, where’s my Somm? The Revolving Door

Every year we in the industry we lament the revolving door in wine director positions, but I have never seen it like this. Wine Directors are vanishing like Keyser Söze. There have been dramatically shorter stints in high profile wine director positions and even faster exits in the last few years hint at some fundamental changes at the buyer level across the city. There is now a precedent for shorter stints in higher level positions, and who can say what that really means?

One thing is clear: the velocity of turnover in buying positions overall seems to be trending up.

Is this volatility new? Why has the velocity of turnover in these positions sped up?

Setting the scene

We are on a multi-year upward trend in the overall number of Wine Director positions in the city. In the past, there were many more hybrid positions like General Manager/Wine Director and only a few Wine Directors with Sommelier teams. Now there are numerous Sommelier teams and few GM/Wine Directors.

Consider this: It is exceedingly rare that a new restaurant opening is announced and there isn’t a noted Wine Director in the by-line.

This has been gaining steadily with the rise of the #Sommelebrity, and the rising interest in wine as a viable career path. Since there are so many new stand-alone Wine Director positions, now there are more positions to be filled by young and up and coming Somms. The quantity of jobs is up and volume of Sommeliers in the pipeline is up.

If the above is true, why is filling the Wine Director position more difficult now?

A Lack of Talent?

I don’t buy the argument that there are less talented Somms for a second. There is not a lack of talent in this pool, there is a lack of understanding. I know firsthand that there many talented wine directors out there, and some in the most unlikely of places in the City. You don’t have to go out of the market to Montreal or San Fran or Chicago to find suitable candidates, one just needs to get to know the broader landscape in NYC.

Some talented wine directors don’t fit the mold of the current Somm squad. They aren’t on the Court track, they don’t work in the sexiest of places, they don’t have a following on Instagram, but – they are there. I know this because I know them.

Harder work?

The chances that restaurants are harder to work in today compared to a few years ago is highly unlikely. The top positions are prime for a reason and restaurants are what they have always been: challenging to work in.

Today, there are many more tools available to the Wine Director that were not available before. Can you imagine what it would be like without Sevenfifty or Binwise or Compeat or Bevager, right now? It wasn’t that long ago that these tools just didn’t exist.

So talent lacking, and the jobs still aren’t easy…clearly, these aren’t viable reasons for the velocity of turnover.

“ ...the rising role (and BRAND) of the Sommelier has confused those that hire, and probably the rest of us, too.

The Difference

Do the people hiring know the difference between a Sommelier and a Wine Director? Ask me late night after a Chartreuse or two and I would say no. I think the rising role (and BRAND) of the Sommelier has confused those that hire, and probably the rest of us, too. Often, I believe they conflate the wine knowledge of top sommeliers and the know-how of experienced and/or intuitive Wine Directors. #Sommelebrity* is clouding the judgment of some people in hiring positions.

I have written about this before: these jobs require two different sets of skills. They can absolutely exist in the same person, but it is a rare bird that has the wine director position all figured out without experience. I think this is a primary driver of the velocity of turnover in high profile positions.

It is hard to give the football in the big game to a rookie and to get the savvy veteran, and in turn, you may have to pay a bit more.

Looking ahead

Also, as of this moment, I know of only one group where the wine director is actively trying to create more wine directors within the Group. This is an exceedingly rare thing. In fact, I have rarely heard a wine director say that they learned to be a wine director from working under another wine director. Most often, the best wine directors learned on the job.

I am rarely bearish on much, but we have a bloated situation on our hands with regard to Sommelier positions and teams. There may just be too many Somms on staff for restaurants to bear the overhead. If we get a little correction in the market I could see the GM/Wine Director role come back.

Clearly, the intelligent restaurant groups that want to support the large percentage of their business that comes from wine will want to create a reliable pipeline of Wine Director candidates that can bring some stability to an otherwise volatile marketplace.

I challenge the whole market to go out and execute on this concept. Don’t just create more Somms, create more future Wine Directors and you will win huge. Devote resources and time on the front end and the resulting consistency will bring gifts you can’t imagine today.

SPLASH DECANT 04/02/19

Market Facts

Market Facts are the easy part – they are the water cooler subjects of the industry.

After recent conversations with high-level experience beverage folks it hit me like a ton of bricks: nearly everyone knows the facts, but very few are aware of the cause and effect. The facts are so obvious, it takes nothing but open eyes to gather them…

The Easy Market Facts

Wine Directors are shifting jobs at an alarming rate.

Sommeliers have a platform.

Natural wine is polarizing.

Riesling sells more in theory than in practice. (the same applies to Sherry).

There are so many importer/distributors.

Restaurants are facing immense challenges and will likely perish.

There is a market correction coming.

Certain groups of buyers elude the three-tier system and sell wine to themselves to get the double dip.

The retail landscape is extremely competitive.

No buyer or customer needs another email.

More sales and less inventory.

Buyers in this market have a short attention span. (Can you blame them?)

All of the above was true more than twelve years ago and will be true again next year.

“ Do you know the causes and effects of the above market facts so clearly you could write them on the wall in the dark?

Do you know the causes and effects of the above market facts so clearly you could write them on the wall in the dark? I may not be right, but I have an opinion on both based on experience and study. And – I am obsessed, exhilarated and at times tortured by this very picture.

I advise everyone to start here: am I asking the right questions? Am I just another person saying the same thing about this market that was said a decade ago?

Go deeper. Look for the little changes in the currents. This market is an ocean and most are just looking at the first frothy wave.

If you can get clear on the push and pull of the classic market conditions, you can find ways to connect wine better than before. And maybe, just maybe you can see a glimpse of what the future holds.

SPLASH DECANT 03/23/19

We Have a Rosé Situation

We Have a Rosé Situation.

If it were any worse, we couldn’t stand it; if it were any better, we couldn’t get enough.

I correctly predicted a short and awkward Rosé season in 2018 because I saw the writing on the wall. Odd weather + pre-arrival “allocation” offers selling much less than in previous years put the whole season on ice.

Is the Rosé craze over? Are we at saturation? I believe the answer is no on both counts.

Only the industry can shape the future consumer and level them up.

Can we make Rosé great again?

I dive in on where we are and how we can fix it below.

History

A few seasons ago, I commented on Eater about Rosé being a brand. The Grey Goose-like call at the bar with few producer loyalties and a wide open field. I believe this to still be mostly true, though the field has many more players on it now.

Rosé is a category and not just a color. Still today, few consumers know about Cinsault or Saignée, and even fewer actually drink Rosé year round.

The upside of the Rosé Situation today is that a large portion sold in quality places is of much higher quality than it was 10 years ago. The downside is that expanded choices mean the industry has to lead to something specific and not just take the sales like they will always be there.

JUST THE FACTS

Big numbers

Let’s get this over with. An ocean of Rosé will be sold, and an ocean of Rosé will go unsold.
Yep, big ol’ numbers in the city, and likely a lot left over. The volume is real.

The number one deciding factor is actually the weather, and who can predict that?

Weather – The Seasonal Effect

Rosé is still seasonal, no matter what anyone tells you.
The seasonal buildup still drives the foundation of the year’s sales. And, weather still drives consumer choices, no matter what any “rosé all year ’round marketing says.” When Spring starts to feel imminent, consumers picture late afternoons in the park, springtime clothes and drinking Rosé.
If the industry really wanted year-round rosé drinking, then lists and shelves wouldn’t dramatically shrink in the cooler months. Very few restaurants, retailers, importers, and distributors invest in Rosé year round, and this has to change.

Importers and Distributors have to sell all year long and commit to Rosé as a category as valid as any other.

Vintage matters? nah, brah

99% of the time when it comes to higher quality wine, the vintage barely matters. In fact, a significant portion of rosé tastes better with more time in the bottle. But that would supremely screw the pre-arrival allocation offer game up though, wouldn’t it?

The Offer Game

In order to limit the hanging chad inventory at the end of the season that you need to reduce pricing on or closeout, some importers offer rosé before it arrives and purposely sell a “limited/get it while you can” allocation story about the wine — Even if there is so much wine available it is scary.

Many Rosés are treated like a Birkin bag: Buy now or it will be gone. This veiled threat is made to lock up sales and placements without committing to Rosé all year. Can you blame any importer for this? It creates assured sales, so there’s that.

Further, if you do it right when you offer the same limited wine later in the season, the buyer will feel special (even though there will be more rosé to be had). Buyers feeling special + more availability to them of “hard to get wine” usually leads to even more sales – so you get the double-down sales effect.

My fundamental take on this is simple: Allocations have to be truthful.
Allocation liars will get smoked someday, so anyone who lies may win short-term, but not sustain over time.

One crazy added element to the pre-arrival offer race is that it forced a “whichever importer can send the rosé offer out first wins” Rosé race. January offers used to equal Rosé sales in the coffers, now…not so much. In fact, this year I observed apologetic rosé offers galore from top distributors.

Same ol’, Same ol’ Rosé

NOT SHOCKING: many somms buy the same Rosé producer every year.
Cool – if you know what you are saying by doing this as a buyer/sommelier.

SUPER SHOCKING: it is common for buyers to not have tasted the Rosés they have committed to for several seasons.

BOTTOM LINE: If you treat rosé like a commodity, in turn, it will always be one.

“ it is common for buyers to not have tasted the Rosés they have committed to for several seasons. If you treat rosé like a commodity, in turn, it will always be one.

THE ANSWERS

Bye Bye One-Night Stand Sales

Dear importers, stop DI’ing like lazy fucks. Stop with the one-night stand sales; the “we only order what you order” game. It worked before and works much less today. If you are tiny in scale (producer or importer) and this is all you can do then continue – please.

A monochromatic market is a dangerous one.

To make this absolutely clear: most of the allocated Rosés in the market aren’t small production or actually low in supply – the importers just don’t want to risk going past September with wine in the warehouse. Even further, no one wants to lose the attention that is baked into the functional allocation/pre-arrival approach.

All. Year. Long – The Commitment

To level the consumer up, we need to actually get them drinking Rosé all year round. Originally, customers were attracted to the seasonality of the Rosé craze, the newness of it, the value, and the overall excitement.
The answer here is what is obvious and in the bottle: the color. Darker Rosé in the fall, lighter in the spring summer and everything in between. If ten viable programs do this then the whole market will follow.

Expand the rainbow of Rosé all year and everything gets easier.

The Big Brand Game

Higher quality helped the market get here, and we need to stay with it. There will be more White Girl this, Brangelina that. So what?

We can let these brands run, while we sell quality. Tell the story of quality and lean in on the special aspects and there will be more wins long term.

Pricing Amplitude

Trophy Rosé exists. collectibles like Simone, Tempier, etc. We need to expand the spectrum of pricing to have more amplitude. We must create a higher price point comfort.

Finally…

Lean in on Rosé and treat it like a real wine and the whole industry + the consumer will win. Continue to treat rosé like a commodity and it will get struck down like Rome.

If we can expand the choices thoughtfully and get the consumer drinking all year long – then we are off to the races and will triumph.

SPLASH DECANT 03/08/19

The Future of the “Work With”

What is the future of the Work With?*

A lot of national salespeople will really, really not like this – and for that, I am sorry. But, what worked no longer works, and with what is long long gone.

Today, the Work With is the injured old General leaning against the tree saying goodbye as he takes his last few breaths. Thank you for your wine service.

Where is this old concept of selling come from, where is it now, and what replaces it in the NYC beverage market?

The Old Skool

Not so long ago, it was a rarer thing to meet a producer and connect with them personally. The winemaker or owner coming to a restaurant/retail store to introduce themselves and taste with the team felt super good for all parties involved – Work Withs were viewed as a “special treat.”

It was also a key support point in agreements between importer/distributor and producers/suppliers. Coming into town to help and invest in the market by showing wines was a key part of the wine game; an important tool for connection and sales.

Not anymore. The explosion of availability got in the way.

Today

Today, many importer/distributors are using the same encyclopedia sales theory, but the landscape has shape-shifted. Big problem: nearly everything that worked consistently on the street in sales years ago doesn’t function as it did before.

The paradigm has shifted in the city and the Work With is generally viewed as a necessary evil – a burden (with notable exceptions, see below). Rolling around the city and showing your wine wares with a supplier is normally referred to as “part of the job.”

So, what changed?

More events, more tastings, more companies, more good wine, more options – essentially more everything is available daily in NYC. Because of this, the “specialness” of the Work With has nearly vanished. Buyers are less likely to see producers, and at the same time, the number of producers visiting the city every week has grown exponentially.

The classic work-around for this problem has been the event move: Lunch, office tasting, or an educational seminar. But soon these are going to feel stale and contrived because every distributor will have mimicked each other to such a degree, the event will be the goal. Events will be vanilla custard normal.

Here is what I know: invent a new type of connective work and replace the Work With, and you will win.

The Future

As a producer, unless you have something to say besides “may I have an appointment to show wine?” you should stay at home and save the airfare. And, if you don’t trust your distribution to do the job—well, that is a whole different story for another day.

Here is what is trending today: The takeover. Just look at the insta, and you will see. The next iteration will go towards the virtual. Stay tuned on that. Coming to an inbox near you.

“ ...the Work With as we know it is dying in NYC. It is the injured old general leaning against the tree and saying goodbye as he takes his last few breaths.

The Exceptions Today

As always, there are some exceptions to the Work With death, and those are (in no particular order):

The prominent, most lauded producer of an Appellation.

The new producer with monster buzz that makes special wine. GREAT WINE. (pretty rare..)

The producer that has deep personal ties with the market and could roll in anytime, anywhere and be comfortable. (this is the gold, rare)

The producer that knows this market and is into quality of relationship over quantity.

The Importer/Distributor that picks and chooses producer visits like an expert curator. (EX: Rosenthal)

*The Work With is when a wine producer(owner/winemaker) or representative hired by a wine producer joins a salesperson for a group of appointments to show their wines.

SPLASH DECANT 01/15/19

Instagram – A Reliable Echo Chamber, or #Fakewinenews?

Is Instagram a reliable echo chamber for the wine business? Is it a primary source of information to help translate the beverage market in NYC?

I am going all in: NOPE – the ‘Gram is an alternative universe. Full of #fakewinenews.

This won’t stop professionals from using Instagram as their first source of information on the NYC Beverage Market. However, the picture that Instagram paints is as accurate as the facts tweeted by the President of the United States between Midnight and 8 am.

Under the Instagram Covers

The reality is that Instagram highlights a market where no wine director posts the prosecco they sell 10cs a week, the Sancerre that won’t stop selling no matter what the price is, the private label California appellation Cab they make bank on, or the Malbec in their private dining room that customers adore.

In fairness, I love Instagram. I have fun with it and I don’t think it is a bad thing. I absolutely get it. When a wine moves me, sometimes I can’t help myself. I say pic, post, and double-tap it, baby. All. Day. Long.

The circle is smooth and frictionless – everyone is “friends” with everyone else and disagreements are exceedingly rare. The ‘Gram is a giant Dionysian love fest, and we all can get a gulp if we want.

But I must caution here: don’t be fooled by what you see. Those three pictures of Burgundy that are being ‘grammed over and over again probably don’t mean what you think they mean. What you are seeing isn’t a reliable barometer of the market. Knowing this market can’t be faked. It can’t be done from a desk or in flashy tap away stories. You have to go out and show up.

Everything is moving so quickly now that you if you only see the Krug and the Overnoy here, and the Trollat and vertical of Bartolo there, you WILL miss what is really moving the market and simultaneously be very confused. This #instagratification gives the illusion that you have a perspective on the wines that reverberate through the wines programs of the city. But what you are seeing is the fringe of the fringe: the Cherry on top and not the cake.

“ ...stop and think about the last time you said that a wine was killing it all over the city. Was it really, or did you just see it on Instagram three times?

Ever wonder why you keep seeing the same photos of the same bottles cycled over and over again? You probably saw it posted by three people… The app is programmed so you mentally amplify the information. I have been on all sides of this, and the total connective sales of the wines (after all is said and done) is strikingly low.

Bottom line: Don’t buy the lie that you can sit back and get any substantive wine news from Instagram. The people doing the real work continue to know what works, which is most likely not what is getting double-tapped on the regular.

And before you @ me with ideas that the above is obvious, stop and think about the last time you said that a wine was killing it all over the city. Was it really, or did you just see it on Instagram three times?

SPLASH DECANT 12/03/18

“Secrets” of a Successful Sales Rep

I was recently asked to participate in an article on what it takes to be a successful sales rep.

Naturally, it was edited down to the nub. Wine Journalism today is an open field that is primarily “pitch” first, shape article second. It’s all good, I completely understand.

Below is what I submitted, save the questions and answers regarding the company I work for.

Q: Tell me a bit about your background prior to getting into wine sales – where did you work? Have you ever worked in a field other than wine?

A: I am a classically trained Opera singer, and I sang a little bit around. When I moved to NYC, I worked at the pasta palace in Times Square called Carmines for 6 years. I also owned a boutique opera agency representing Opera Singers and Conductors before I shifted into wine sales in late 2007.

Q: Have you carried over any skills learned in previous careers/jobs to this position? Tell me a bit about them.

Multi-section A:

Calm in chaos

Working in a raucous, high volume theater district restaurant was integral to building a skill set that I draw on today as a sales rep. I had to make rapid decisions in a chaotic environment, hone my intuition about the customers to a where it was lightning fast (I often had 10 seconds or less to get a feel for what would serve them best), work through errors quickly…and all on deadline.
Basically, I use all of these skills daily as a rep.

Nuance

Voice study helped me tune into nuance.
The energy, core, and overtones of a sound inform the perception of the sound as a whole – but one has to learn to be aware of them. It takes some simple/complicated noticing.
When I am tasting and attempting to understand a wine today, this skill is what I am calling upon. I try to never get tied up in the brushstrokes and miss the painting.

Negotiation

Being an opera agent introduced me to high stakes negotiations. In most cases, I was representing my friends.
Today, no matter how high the stakes in the wine biz, I know I have been there before in a much more difficult dynamic.

Q: What are a few skills that you feel are important in order to succeed in wine sales? Why are they important?

Multi-section A:

Empathy + Connection = Dialogue

Being able to put yourself in someone else’s shoes and connect is a key skill. A great rep is able to think like a buyer and make decisions like a buyer. If you do that well, you will anticipate needs/wants. Empathy opens up the possibility of a trusting connection and dialogue normally follows. Here’s the gold: showing wine doesn’t sell wine, dialogue sells wine.

Grit

In the business of selling wine, there are virtually no constants, so having the grit to hang in there and move forward when challenges come up is integral. Your ducks will never be in a row. I have been saying for years that being a sales rep is like playing Jazz – don’t get tied up about the wrong notes, just keep playing. You don’t give up.

Listening

The best salespeople are expert listeners. Endeavor to become a better listener and ask better questions. Don’t just run around with wine in a bag pouring juice in glasses and “over-detailing” buyers – listen more, and explain less. Listening well can connect you to a customer in a way a wine never can.

Perspective

The importance of knowing how your portfolio and the producers within fit into the broader landscape of the market cannot be overstated. More specifically, I mean you need to have an informed perspective of the market competition in addition to your own portfolio. And it isn’t enough to “Good Will Hunting” the competition like you memorized it in a book and you can quote pages or throw out names. You need to have a feel for them that goes beyond the facts. Having a more textured viewpoint gives you opportunities to see where wines from your portfolio belong and how they measure up.

Belief

You have to decide what your core beliefs are as a rep. What are you doing this for? The answer may evolve with experience. And if the answer is Commission, I can assure you that you will get smoked in some way or another. It has to be deeper than that.
The reason core beliefs are so important is that they inform every step of what you do. From the dialogue you seek, to the service you give. This is the one constant you can hang your hat on in a volatile and constantly changing market.

Moving on

Letting go of accounts is a skill that has to be practiced. Sales reps sometimes hoard accounts or stake claims on accounts that they are working with (or working on) without considering that their energy would be better used elsewhere. They forget that they have options. One of the absolute best ways to open your sales world is to shed accounts. Sometimes you have to let the account go, even when the “numbers” or some account dynamic may be telling you to stay.

“ Many reps (and companies!) are paying much more attention to the wine equivalent of asteroids and not planets.

Q: Is there any one thing that came in unexpectedly handy when you started working as a sales rep?

A: I started paying attention to the super top reps very early on. I studied what they were doing and then put their practices (if they fit for me) through the prism of my style, portfolio, and my customers.

Also, my intuition came in handy. I really followed my gut on a lot of early decisions, even when I was walking in the opposite direction of the crowd.

Q: Do you have anything else to add?

A: Many reps (and companies!) are paying much more attention to the wine equivalent of asteroids and not planets. Instagram is especially filled with this sort of thing. It is good to be aware of both, but ultimately the wines that actually move the NYC market are rarely the same as the ones as that are ‘grammed over and over again. It is vital to know the difference and be able to translate that into your work if you want long-term success.

SPLASH DECANT 11/01/18

Graceful Distribution – a definition

Graceful distribution* will define the wine business in the next decade.

Look across the landscape of all these Importers and Distributors – those who can execute with grace will be left standing and the others with either blow up soon or slowly wither away to nothing.

The Concept

Graceful Distribution honors the producer, the importer/distributor, the beverage director/restaurant/retailer, and the end consumer. It is a circular chain that is exceedingly difficult and innately imperfect. But whoever can get their heads around this concept in these competitive times is not only going to win but win huge.

The importer/distributor that can gracefully support their growers, the customers they sell to and the people that work for them is the real juggernaut.

Graceful distribution will be the difference maker, the lifeline of it all.

“ The importer/distributor that can gracefully support the producers they represent, the customers they sell to and the people that work for them is the real juggernaut.

This is the defining time and I believe there to be a gargantuan amount of opportunity. This is a moment where an importer/distributor can really separate itself. If you can execute on Graceful distribution, you will win…

This is a moment where an importer/distributor can really separate itself. If you can execute on Graceful distribution, you will win.

Graceful Distribution – the act of distribution in the pursuit of serving in every direction. Towards producer, towards employees, customers, and consumers. Each individually, and all at once.

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