SPLASH DECANT 04/15/21

Orange Crush – The Arc of the Orange Wine Craze

5 minute read

File under: History

Genesis

It started like a whisper. Orange Wines began getting real play in the small, energetic restaurants in the city. The first wave #sommelebrity set saw an opportunity in the wines of De Conciliis, Gravner, Radikon and Vodopivec for the young elites coming in for that new new.

Sommeliers began headlining prominent digital publication upstarts with the Orange Wine story and including it as the trendy, pro recommendation – saying ‘white wine made like a red’ in a thousand different ways. ‘Macerated on the skins’ was thrown about table side like tik tok dance routines.

Nouveau-Niche

Orange Wine became the nouveau-niche category of the wine world; gaining immense traction and providing a new conversation. “Do you have orange wine?” became a question that importer/distributors would expect to get.

Just when it seemed like Orange Wine would become the yin to the mic-drop sales of Rosé’s yang, like it would be the other color-curious question that would be asked by the customers at wine stores, these articles went viral and gave Orange Wine a gut punch: Why Tecate is Greater than Orange Wine, quickly followed by Orange Wine Already Over, Say Two Wine Writers.

Take a moment and read these articles beyond the titles. That was 2013.

The Dark Times

Immediately following these articles, Orange Wine went through a brutal period where it fell starkly out of favor. It was put on the end of the wine bench – unlikely to be called and asked to play. On the street we talked about how fast it had died. How many of the wines weren’t even orange and how wacky the prices were.

Were they actually too expensive? Was Rosé just that dominant? Was the explanation of the wine process of orange wine just too difficult to take in for the general public? Did they obscure terroir via process?

I doubt there is an answer, but it was around this time that I had a realization.

In the above articles, Jon Bonné and Richard Betts (both of whom I admire) clarified one of the most vital elements of the new wine business for me: trends often don’t care about the industry, they feed on something outside us insiders.

In 2017, I started to notice a sliver of daylight and emerging possibilities for Orange Wine via a raucously fun Ribolla Gialla Tasting in California and more tangibly, some street-level sales action I wrote about here.

Guess who’s back?

The slow time for Orange Wine came to an end with bright flashes of resurgence in the press. Orange Wine started showing up again in headlines in numerous wine publications, paired with clickbait headlines like ‘What is Natural Wine?’ and ‘Is Rosé Over?’

Do you have Orange Wine? is again an opener question in retail stores and restaurants accompanied by a new crop of factory-fabricated orange wine entering the sub-$15 retail space. And producers are regularly convinced by their importers to make an orange to acquire some perceived relevance.

Today you can join an Orange Wine Club or grab Simon Woolf’s book available on Amazon, Amber Revolution.

The Future

We aren’t approaching the peak of Orange Wine, yet. The answer to this trend’s possible velocity lies in a few simplistic concepts:

It’s easy to remember and ask for, fast to say, loosely defined, and widely available.

Now go try a few and see if you like them. And buckle up, because more is on the way.

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SPLASH DECANT 01/01/21

Predictions for 2021

If 2020 was an earthquake, 2021 is about rebuilding. Below are my predictions for 2021 – hang tight, it’s going to be a wild one that will ultimately reshape the whole beverage business in surprising ways.

Silicon Valley and Wine?

Can the wine world handle the new tech bro entrance? Will we accept hoodies and all birds? I am currently wearing both…DOH.
Tech is going to more strongly enter the wine world. Whether it’s a platform or marketplace like Sevenfifty, AI to learn consumer’s taste, another new product or app trying to “democratize” the wine world, or a platform to make ordering easy. Wine Tech is coming, and I don’t mean the “we want to be the Amazon of wine” people, that’s hogwash. I mean a tech perspective on wine problems.

What’s certain is that a tech hat put on a scalable product works, but it doesn’t match up with the artisan/farmer wine model. In other words, it’s hard to go tech with artisan products coming from the old world where faxes and 80’s pop music are still a thing.

Someone is going to solve the right wine world problem with tech and it will be the beginning of a massive shift in the beverage ecosystem.

Subscriptions Galore

As consumption at home and delivery to those at home solidifies as a bigger part of the game, we are going to see a sizeable amount of subscription wine clubs formed – both through existing brick and mortar retail and independent operations. Anyone who wants to scale their subscription into something real is going to realize that it’s hard to move wine around the country. Those who have it grooved and/or figure it out will win big.

The New Retail

If the experience of buying wine and spirits is like going to the gas station, then prepare to watch the retailers offering this experience squirm and struggle. The new retail is going to focus on the digital shopping experience, in-store operations, service, and delivery. From the first interaction to checking out, the experience will be the focus for those that want to win. Quibble with Total Wine or the like all you want, but try shopping online, in-store, and/or taking delivery from them. It’s brilliant. That’s where it is all going in retail.

A Great Reorganization

We are going to see rebirth and reorganization across the board in the beverage distribution and import ecosystem. If the import/distribution game was a chessboard, imagine an empty board that will be reset in a new combination we have never seen before.

There will be new players, consolidation, and a staggering amount of producers up for grabs. Along with this shift, importers with means will go more direct to have more control over their own destiny. It’s not the sort of switch you can just turn on or off and is harder than it looks – but direct is the new direction.

The gangster move is a consolidation of a few mid-size players – who will that be?

Private Labelism Hits New Heights

There is going to be a TON of juice available at a discount. The exhale of inventory of all of this available juice will be through current private labels and a startling number of new private label projects.

New Size Formats

Holy shit, this is huge, especially in the spirits space. New size formats of 700ml, 720ml, 900ml, and 1.8L for spirits will extend the lines of many known spirits brands and even more newcomers. It’s a huge advantage for those working with distilleries in the EU and Japan. This will be a gamechanger in Q3/Q4 and lead to record spirits sales.

Tariff Madness

On his way out, the Orange Monster is attempting to burn everything down and hand the next guy and his administration, not just a shit sandwich, but a full tasting menu of shit. For the cheese course, we in the wine and spirits business get this: there are more tariffs in play. This new round represents a financial and emotional migraine for the business that is going to take quite a bit to get rid of and is going to cause some casualties. We have to hope for get a new deal with the new administration.

Low and Soft – the Low Alcohol Trend Accelerates

Low alcohol is going to get a lot more attention this year. Brands like Ghia and Seedlip are going to see more competition and more play. Look for well-known distillers to jump into this space with line extensions of low to no alcohol that mimics beer brands that produce low alcohol products.

Big Box Natural

This year we are going to see the solidification of the Big Box Natural phenomenon. Wines that would have never fit into the burgeoning category five years ago because of the size of the producer or their mission will be publicly accepted and will hit more shelves than ever. This is directly related to the ascending demand and price of the en vogue wines and the business sense of the Natural Wine Tribe.

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SPLASH DECANT 12/01/20

The Birth of Big Box Natural

A few months ago the Valentina Passalacqua drama* was the go-to conversation in the wine streets of NYC, and I couldn’t help but be reminded of the Bressan issue of a few years ago.

As shocking as this is, there is no doubt Valentina Passalacqua will have US representation again. And like Bressan, the drama will be placed into a dark and unsuspecting corner of the mind of the market and the wines will find their way onto lists and shelves.

But below the surface of the Passalacqua drama was a significant development – a new iteration of the natural wine movement I am calling Big Box Natural.

Filling a Need

In February, my wife and I went to a wonderful restaurant with a voluminous natural wine list in Montréal and I asked the talented and well-traveled sommelier about the current craze for the V. Passalacqua and his response was startling:

“She is rich and has 80ha of vines. Her wines fill a need.”

Which need is that? Between the lines of this statement is a powerful cultural shift in the shape of the natural wine tribe movement.

Valentina Passalacqua didn’t just expose worker rights and issues, Passalacqua cemented the new business model – Big Box Natural.

And with it, comes a whole new iteration of the natural wine movement that has a far-reaching impact. What was unthinkable a few years ago has happened. Natural now has a proven, scalable, and repeatable business model and will get the full profit-driven treatment.

The Fundamentals of Big Box Natural

A decade ago, the early-adopting ambassadors of Natural laughed when you called a family estate of 15ha “a small estate.” Now, that definition no longer applies.

We are a long way from the barely-attended Dive Bouteille held outside in the rain.

The market driving forces of the Natural Wine Movement have been scarcity, fear of missing out on the new producer, approachable prices, and most importantly, being a part of a fun, kinetic tribe that is going against the grain. This is a movement that thrives on being David versus the commercial wine Goliath.

But, because demand firmly outstrips supply and pricing is now elevated, the producers of the Natural Wine Tribe have encountered a conundrum that will drive this new business narrative: not enough wine and less affordability.

The fundamental change in the Natural Wine Movement is that large production is no longer off the table. Big estates that would be laughed at as a member of the tribe will now be considered natural. It’s done, and Valentina Passalacqua proved it.

According to the facings in stores today, even a large farm where a portion of the vineyards are farmed sustainably, another portion organic, and the third portion biodynamic, can produce natural wine. These wines are bought by the truckload and portrayed as natural on shelves and lists.

Going forward, having a larger quantity available at a moveable price tier is where the action will be. Wines that hit that magic fire price point below $19.99 will become much more prevalent.

For the above reasons, you will see many more private labels masquerading as Natural. Veiled collaborations that make it sound like a well-known producer made the wines or they were made to certain specifications. Even wines where the source is more than dubious will be passed off as natural.

In concert with this phenomenon, many natural wine producers will start sourcing from outside their appellation, expanding their holdings, and borrowing/trading fruit to supplement production and profit.

Large retailers will buy these labels from private-labelist importer/distributors until they decide to jump past the importer/distributor and source their own next best thing at the lowest possible price, expanding this space even further.

Big Box Natural is the new fire category where the growth is going to be dramatic, mind-bending, and turn this David into more of a Goliath player.

Will this snake eat its own tail? Will this ruin the artisan, wabi-sabi model, or will all boats rise? We are going to find out in 2021.

*For a quick take on the V. Passalacqua drama, Eric Asimov of the New York Times wrote an eloquent piece you can read here.

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SPLASH DECANT 11/01/20

Reality Show Wines

Have you had Snookie’s Silvaner, Flava Flav’s Furmint, or the New Bachelorette’s Beaujolais?

Not yet, but with the way things are going they will soon be at your neighborhood shop with a proper label from a high-powered marketing team.

They may come with a large, cartoonish clock, or be as simple as a new sexy wine marketing term like clean wine. Minimalist labels will have the celebrity’s name front and center with typography that is SO perfectly on-brand. Bonus: they will almost always have a winemaker from a notable winery “making” the wine to add a sliver of market viability (or a questionable veneer of substance).

Celebrities are crossing the rubicon in droves to not just drink on Instagram live, but lend their names to wines and build brands to add to their expanding portfolios. It’s easy to picture the marketing meeting that led to most of these celebrified wine projects.

Just a few months ago, I read that a certain celebrity wants to “create the defining brand of rosé Champagne,” and I laughed out loud. Then I looked into who is involved and it just made me sad.

I will always give any wine a fair shake, but I can’t look out into a multi-layered, under pressure beverage marketplace during this pandemic and not shiver at the reality show wines appearing on shelves in large quantities. I get the allure – these wines bring easy sales or there may be some new customers that call. But I ask you, what has happened to your conviction? What are you left with?

The moment Nate Ready makes a Napa Cabernet for Elon Musk (Flamethrower Cabernet?), I will concede. There might even be short term positives to the celebrification of wine, but there will no doubt be a hefty price to pay.

Sadly, I believe these reality show wines are in large part another symptom of a segment of the wine world that wants reality show wines of low substance, high celebrity, and barely-there soul.

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SPLASH DECANT 09/01/20

Is it Art or Science?

Asking if the beverage game is an art or a science is the wrong question – it’s almost always too much of one and not enough of the other.

EX: If you can look at your inventory turn over a relevant period and predict exactly what will sell next month, you are selling a commodity, not a handmade product. Everything goes out the window when there is an external force like an economic downturn or once-in-a-lifetime pandemic or a restaurant closing or a retailer gets hit with a wicked fine that leaves them cash-strapped.

Most of the time there isn’t enough art. There is no song, cadence, belief, impulse or feel – an absence of rubato.

Anyone can run a report and think they have the answers. But to weave art into what you do requires a strong, invested core.

Conversely, working purely on artistic impulse without observing data and you are a fool – maybe at times a lucky fool, but a fool.

Relearn to thread this needle every day and you will find a balance that others wish they had.

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SPLASH DECANT 08/01/20

The Biggest Beverage Industry Reset in History

We are in the middle of the biggest reset in beverage industry history since prohibition.

What we once knew as “normal” is flattened, cracked, and in many cases, decimated by the pressure test of the coronavirus. Today it is a tabula rasa – a leveled playing field that will not be repeated in our lifetimes.

Legacy importer/distributors are shaken up and quietly toppling over. Sales reps are getting laid off in droves because the pre-covid sales rep role no longer exists. Wine clubs are the new, splashy-blasty trend. Celebrity-owned, mostly private label wines are occupying valuable shelf space instead of grower/producers. Athletes are moving into the beverage space in droves with wineries, brands and partnerships.

The beverage game has been shifted forever, but because of the dynamic reshaping of the industry, more is possible than ever before.

High-level producers are in play. Internal culture in distribution can be invested in and changed for the better. We can extend a hand to those that have felt like they can’t enter this business. The old 8-track business models of the beverage industry can move into the now – or wither away.

Look around. It isn’t the beverage version of Planet of the Apes and we aren’t looking at Lady Liberty. It is time to rethink, renew, and execute on something new that really represents the future.

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SPLASH DECANT 05/01/20

A Pause – Returning Soon

It has been a while. I have many posts in queue that I just can’t bring myself to publish.

When I think about the passionate table side messengers that would leave a bottle without a word, or the intuitive advocate behind a full rack of wines that points me in the direction of a new, quiet jewel, I am deeply saddened. I am brokenhearted that I may not see them making art in their work again – that they may not return. It is a difficult possibility to accept.

Not only is it hard to see the light right now, but the world around me is screaming that this is a time for reflection and recalibration and I am going to listen. The world has shifted and we must to shift with it.

While there are so many more uncertainties today, I am certain that the beverage industry that I have been blessed to be a part of and work with over the years is the most dynamic and imaginative group of people around. We will rebuild this together and it won’t look like it did before. But we must charge forward – resolute and clear-eyed.

I will be back making new things in August. Until then, I wish you hope and safety and good health.

“ We will rebuild this industry together...

A Long Walk

April 28th, 2020 – Bushwick, BK

Walking at dusk in my neighborhood is like wandering into a zombie movie set and not knowing it isn’t real.
Rebel restaurants with masked people doling out batched Negronis and Beer. They are making the best they can with whatever they have.
Every block, shiny signs are without luminescence loom over an empty space or new mercado. Every sound seems louder. Each truck that crashes by to deliver something essential snaps me back to the edge of the corner.

The birds chirp and sway. The flowers are in broad bunches of blooms. Both unaware that there is unfathomable uncertainty and hope and despair all around them.

I cry under my mask and wonder if anyone can tell. Do we even really look at each other any more as we dodge to at least six feet away like a giant game of human tetris? How can we see each other again?

But what can we do? We breathe. We stay present. We walk forward, not knowing what is ahead (we never knew before…).

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