SPLASH DECANT 03/23/19

We Have a Rosé Situation

We Have a Rosé Situation.

If it were any worse, we couldn’t stand it; if it were any better, we couldn’t get enough.

I correctly predicted a short and awkward Rosé season in 2018 because I saw the writing on the wall. Odd weather + pre-arrival “allocation” offers selling much less than in previous years put the whole season on ice.

Is the Rosé craze over? Are we at saturation? I believe the answer is no on both counts.

Only the industry can shape the future consumer and level them up.

Can we make Rosé great again?

I dive in on where we are and how we can fix it below.

History

A few seasons ago, I commented on Eater about Rosé being a brand. The Grey Goose-like call at the bar with few producer loyalties and a wide open field. I believe this to still be mostly true, though the field has many more players on it now.

Rosé is a category and not just a color. Still today, few consumers know about Cinsault or Saignée, and even fewer actually drink Rosé year round.

The upside of the Rosé Situation today is that a large portion sold in quality places is of much higher quality than it was 10 years ago. The downside is that expanded choices mean the industry has to lead to something specific and not just take the sales like they will always be there.

JUST THE FACTS

Big numbers

Let’s get this over with. An ocean of Rosé will be sold, and an ocean of Rosé will go unsold.
Yep, big ol’ numbers in the city, and likely a lot left over. The volume is real.

The number one deciding factor is actually the weather, and who can predict that?

Weather – The Seasonal Effect

Rosé is still seasonal, no matter what anyone tells you.
The seasonal buildup still drives the foundation of the year’s sales. And, weather still drives consumer choices, no matter what any “rosé all year ’round marketing says.” When Spring starts to feel imminent, consumers picture late afternoons in the park, springtime clothes and drinking Rosé.
If the industry really wanted year-round rosé drinking, then lists and shelves wouldn’t dramatically shrink in the cooler months. Very few restaurants, retailers, importers, and distributors invest in Rosé year round, and this has to change.

Importers and Distributors have to sell all year long and commit to Rosé as a category as valid as any other.

Vintage matters? nah, brah

99% of the time when it comes to higher quality wine, the vintage barely matters. In fact, a significant portion of rosé tastes better with more time in the bottle. But that would supremely screw the pre-arrival allocation offer game up though, wouldn’t it?

The Offer Game

In order to limit the hanging chad inventory at the end of the season that you need to reduce pricing on or closeout, some importers offer rosé before it arrives and purposely sell a “limited/get it while you can” allocation story about the wine — Even if there is so much wine available it is scary.

Many Rosés are treated like a Birkin bag: Buy now or it will be gone. This veiled threat is made to lock up sales and placements without committing to Rosé all year. Can you blame any importer for this? It creates assured sales, so there’s that.

Further, if you do it right when you offer the same limited wine later in the season, the buyer will feel special (even though there will be more rosé to be had). Buyers feeling special + more availability to them of “hard to get wine” usually leads to even more sales – so you get the double-down sales effect.

My fundamental take on this is simple: Allocations have to be truthful.
Allocation liars will get smoked someday, so anyone who lies may win short-term, but not sustain over time.

One crazy added element to the pre-arrival offer race is that it forced a “whichever importer can send the rosé offer out first wins” Rosé race. January offers used to equal Rosé sales in the coffers, now…not so much. In fact, this year I observed apologetic rosé offers galore from top distributors.

Same ol’, Same ol’ Rosé

NOT SHOCKING: many somms buy the same Rosé producer every year.
Cool – if you know what you are saying by doing this as a buyer/sommelier.

SUPER SHOCKING: it is common for buyers to not have tasted the Rosés they have committed to for several seasons.

BOTTOM LINE: If you treat rosé like a commodity, in turn, it will always be one.

“ it is common for buyers to not have tasted the Rosés they have committed to for several seasons. If you treat rosé like a commodity, in turn, it will always be one.

THE ANSWERS

Bye Bye One-Night Stand Sales

Dear importers, stop DI’ing like lazy fucks. Stop with the one-night stand sales; the “we only order what you order” game. It worked before and works much less today. If you are tiny in scale (producer or importer) and this is all you can do then continue – please.

A monochromatic market is a dangerous one.

To make this absolutely clear: most of the allocated Rosés in the market aren’t small production or actually low in supply – the importers just don’t want to risk going past September with wine in the warehouse. Even further, no one wants to lose the attention that is baked into the functional allocation/pre-arrival approach.

All. Year. Long – The Commitment

To level the consumer up, we need to actually get them drinking Rosé all year round. Originally, customers were attracted to the seasonality of the Rosé craze, the newness of it, the value, and the overall excitement.
The answer here is what is obvious and in the bottle: the color. Darker Rosé in the fall, lighter in the spring summer and everything in between. If ten viable programs do this then the whole market will follow.

Expand the rainbow of Rosé all year and everything gets easier.

The Big Brand Game

Higher quality helped the market get here, and we need to stay with it. There will be more White Girl this, Brangelina that. So what?

We can let these brands run, while we sell quality. Tell the story of quality and lean in on the special aspects and there will be more wins long term.

Pricing Amplitude

Trophy Rosé exists. collectibles like Simone, Tempier, etc. We need to expand the spectrum of pricing to have more amplitude. We must create a higher price point comfort.

Finally…

Lean in on Rosé and treat it like a real wine and the whole industry + the consumer will win. Continue to treat rosé like a commodity and it will get struck down like Rome.

If we can expand the choices thoughtfully and get the consumer drinking all year long – then we are off to the races and will triumph.

THE REORDER 03/15/19

My Classic F%*+ ups in the Sales Game

Listing my classic my classic F%*+ ups in the sales game and how to avoid them could be a book.

Here are a few of my greatest hit screw-ups and some insight into how to not repeat my mistakes.

I hope this helps.

My Sales F%*+ ups – the Greatest Hits

Describing Producers

Wines can be anchored by the reference point of an appellation.
Do not sell your wine through the lenses of another wine unless the differences are vivid and elevate your wine, or you are also selling the other wine. You have to have contrast in some fashion or you are just anchoring the reference point wine/producer in the buyers mind. And, most of the time the reference point doesn’t need your help.

Connection Problems

So what if they don’t respond to emails?
Don’t get desperate and barrage them. Learn patience.

Missed orders

Don’t mirror the despair of the customer in trouble. Also, don’t be tone-deaf. Be the honest and reliable one. Even if you lose because of it.

Big Problems and Honesty

If there’s a problem you have with the account, you most likely need to say something.
But HOW you say it is everything.
The facts don’t matter as much as you think – you are working with emotions in an abundant market. I have royally screwed this up by bringing issue up in front of other people. Do not do that unless you are willing to walk away for a long time (sometimes you have to…).

Over Sampling

You can sample too much. Sometimes people just want to buy from you. Let them.

Checking Orders

Have a personal system that re-confims order items and quantities or you will be lost. Having this system won’t be perfect, but you can minimize errors. Distribution involves many links in the chain with a human hand involved. Be prepared to check and adjust on the fly.

Large Deals

I made one of the largest deals of my career and it was a fiasco for multiple reasons, but I didn’t communicate well. If you hope that they will do the right thing and don’t communicate expectations it is on you (the salesperson). If you are at the figurative table, you have to put it out there.

“ Dialogue with the person and not the program because a list only gives hints, a person gives answers.

COD

Make it clear that someone else posted a customer COD when you bring it up. It is shocking how many buyers know nothing about the mechanics of COD.

The Buyer – not the list

Lists and selections are often personal. Looking at a list online doesn’t show you history, etc.
You can go online all day and find holes, but the buyer is the contact. Offer to the person. Dialogue with the person and not the program because a list only gives hints, a person gives answers.

SPLASH DECANT 03/08/19

The Future of the “Work With”

What is the future of the Work With?*

A lot of national salespeople will really, really not like this – and for that, I am sorry. But, what worked no longer works, and with what is long long gone.

Today, the Work With is the injured old General leaning against the tree saying goodbye as he takes his last few breaths. Thank you for your wine service.

Where is this old concept of selling come from, where is it now, and what replaces it in the NYC beverage market?

The Old Skool

Not so long ago, it was a rarer thing to meet a producer and connect with them personally. The winemaker or owner coming to a restaurant/retail store to introduce themselves and taste with the team felt super good for all parties involved – Work Withs were viewed as a “special treat.”

It was also a key support point in agreements between importer/distributor and producers/suppliers. Coming into town to help and invest in the market by showing wines was a key part of the wine game; an important tool for connection and sales.

Not anymore. The explosion of availability got in the way.

Today

Today, many importer/distributors are using the same encyclopedia sales theory, but the landscape has shape-shifted. Big problem: nearly everything that worked consistently on the street in sales years ago doesn’t function as it did before.

The paradigm has shifted in the city and the Work With is generally viewed as a necessary evil – a burden (with notable exceptions, see below). Rolling around the city and showing your wine wares with a supplier is normally referred to as “part of the job.”

So, what changed?

More events, more tastings, more companies, more good wine, more options – essentially more everything is available daily in NYC. Because of this, the “specialness” of the Work With has nearly vanished. Buyers are less likely to see producers, and at the same time, the number of producers visiting the city every week has grown exponentially.

The classic work-around for this problem has been the event move: Lunch, office tasting, or an educational seminar. But soon these are going to feel stale and contrived because every distributor will have mimicked each other to such a degree, the event will be the goal. Events will be vanilla custard normal.

Here is what I know: invent a new type of connective work and replace the Work With, and you will win.

The Future

As a producer, unless you have something to say besides “may I have an appointment to show wine?” you should stay at home and save the airfare. And, if you don’t trust your distribution to do the job—well, that is a whole different story for another day.

Here is what is trending today: The takeover. Just look at the insta, and you will see. The next iteration will go towards the virtual. Stay tuned on that. Coming to an inbox near you.

“ ...the Work With as we know it is dying in NYC. It is the injured old general leaning against the tree and saying goodbye as he takes his last few breaths.

The Exceptions Today

As always, there are some exceptions to the Work With death, and those are (in no particular order):

The prominent, most lauded producer of an Appellation.

The new producer with monster buzz that makes special wine. GREAT WINE. (pretty rare..)

The producer that has deep personal ties with the market and could roll in anytime, anywhere and be comfortable. (this is the gold, rare)

The producer that knows this market and is into quality of relationship over quantity.

The Importer/Distributor that picks and chooses producer visits like an expert curator. (EX: Rosenthal)

*The Work With is when a wine producer(owner/winemaker) or representative hired by a wine producer joins a salesperson for a group of appointments to show their wines.